Economists have pulled up their risk assessments of a contraction amid heightened uncertainty over geopolitical risk and a labor market slump.

Mark Zandi said the risk of a US recession is rising, and flagged the exact level he thinks oil would need to hit to spur a downturn.

Blame rising oil prices.

US recession 2026​ prediction explained: US recession fears are escalating as major forecasts predict a significant increase in odds, driven by global tensions and economic pressures. Rising oil prices due to the Iran war and signs of weakness in the labor market and consumer confidence are contributing to growing economic stress.

Feeling gloomy about the U.S. economy? You're not alone. Consumer sentiment fell in March following the start of the Iran war as recession risks grew.

The investments you choose will make or break your portfolio during a recession.

Rising oil prices and a slowing labor market could be the two forces that drag the US economy into a downturn, Mark Zandi said.

One-fifth of the world's oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz. Iran can block it until the economic pain forces us to stop fighting.

Several indicators suggest Australia might be heading for a recession - if not already in one - as oil shock from the Middle East crisis and interest rates smash consumer confidence.